Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for October 16, 2023. Investors are currently considering geopolitics, the war in Israel, inflation, consumer sentiment, government shutdowns and volatility. In the last week, we've seen a war get declared with high death tolls and now the risk of it increasing in Israel's surrounding region has appeared. Americans are experiencing persistent inflation which has consumers feeling less optimistic. The good news is that banks did well in the third quarter.

Retail sales are slowing as inflation numbers get released

What's the difference between volatility and risk? Our Peek of the Week analyzes the recent inflation numbers, current retail sales data, and the risks involved with market volatility. We do our best to explain the difference between risk and volatility. You may have noticed... we are hearing the word "inflation" A LOT and feeling the rising prices to go with it. Mainly, it's a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the supply chain bottlenecks with no end in sight at the moment.

Consumers are feeling blue in June

Our brand new Peek of the Week doubles down on the feelings of the American consumer: feeling blue. About half of Americans are spending less due to inflation and 79 percent of consumers anticipate business conditions to decline during the next 12 months. Investors are choosing to see the good with the fact that the Federal Reserve may slow its rate hikes, or may raise rates by less, since consumers are spending less and manufacturing growth has slowed.

High consumer pessimism leads to higher consumer spending... WHAT???!

Consumers are feeling more pessimistic than they have in a decade. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey shows that sentiment has been sliding lower all year. Today's Peek of the Week explains how during a time when consumer pessimism feels at an all-time high, consumers could actually be more optimistic than the reports are indicating.