Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for October 16, 2023. Investors are currently considering geopolitics, the war in Israel, inflation, consumer sentiment, government shutdowns and volatility. In the last week, we've seen a war get declared with high death tolls and now the risk of it increasing in Israel's surrounding region has appeared. Americans are experiencing persistent inflation which has consumers feeling less optimistic. The good news is that banks did well in the third quarter.

Predicting an upcoming recession is like flipping a coin

The stock market has been dropping, but it's important to know the stock market isn't very accurate when it comes to predicting recessions. And it sure seems like that's the word being thrown around these days: recession. The fact is, bear markets in stocks lead to recessions only about 53 percent of the time. In other words, the stock market has about the same predictive value for recessions as a simple coin toss. Let that sink in!