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Peek of the Week

Posts tagged #growth
The cycle of economic activity

Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for December 4, 2023. Economic activity tends to move in the cycle of: contraction, trough, expansion and peak. At the end of the fourth quarter, the U.S. economy has been in the late cycle stage of expansion, yet this doesn't necessarily mean that we will reach a contraction entirely. Expansions occur when an economy produces more goods and services and our economy has been expanding since mid-year-2022. Expansions end when the economy experiences a shock of some kind. Shocks that cause recessions might include financial market disruptions, international disturbances, technology shocks, energy price shocks and actions taken by monetary policymakers to restrain inflation.

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Adapting to war and a changing reality

U.S. stocks finished the week lower. This comes as no surprise as our world is currently being forced to quickly adapt to a fast-changing reality. The war in Ukraine has intensified and financial markets are grappling with all this uncertainty. Today's Peek of the Week discusses the recent wartime sanctions and how economists are now expected to revise their predictions for global growth and inflation. Economists anticipate the rising commodity prices (on things like oil and gas) are likely to push inflation higher than it might have been otherwise, causing a slowdown for the global economy.

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The 'January Barometer' prediction and global innovation

If you aren't familiar with the 'January Barometer', today's Peek of the Week describes it like this: as goes January, so goes the year. . . As we know, people do not make perfect financial decisions and the predictive values associated with the January Barometer aren't perfect, either. So what's going on? Last week we saw U.S. stock indices move lower because of inflation, the pandemic and Federal Reserve policy. One thing is very clear: the global economy stays resilient, requiring new and innovative adaptations around the world.

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